Riassumendo. Sirius XM, piena di debiti, si avvicina alla pericolosa scadenza di marted’ 17 febbraio (data di maturazione di un debito di 170 milioni) quando sui giornali compare la notizia che Ergen sta rastrellando il debito dai creditori del satcaster radiofonico con la chiara intenzione di acquisirne il controllo. Karmazin si mette a rinegoziare il dovuto e intanto cerca un white knight, uno che gli dia soldi senza togliergli la poltrona di CEO. E lo trova in Malone, che gli dà mezzo miliardo di dollari in cambio del 40% di Sirius. Così facendo Malone eredita un bel po’ di debito, ma anche una quota dei 2 miliardi di dollari che 20 milioni di abbonati versano ogni anno nelle casse di Sirius. Ora questi abbonati possono restare tranquilli: almeno per un po’ le decine di canali di Sirius XM continueranno a cadere dal cielo. Se la buriana dovesse passare e il mercato dell’auto riprendersi, Sirius potrebbe anche rivelarsi un business di successo caratterizzato, come spesso accade, da un inizio un po’ difficile. Qualcosa però non mi convince del tutto: perché arrivare sull’orlo del baratro trascinandosi dietro una situazione così penosa se la soluzione era a portata di mano? Perché non bussare prima alla porta degli operatori di tv satellitare (che potevano essere sicuramente attratti dall’idea di poter offrire almeno una tipologia di servizi alternativi all’utenza mobile, oltre che ai couch potatoes della peggior risma)? Perché tutti questi patemi con un merger faticosissimo che ora si rivela non decisivo considerando che Sirius poteva cercare Malone anche quando era da sola? Ecco come spiega le ultime frenetiche ore di Sirius XM la splendida newsletter quotidiana di Tom Taylor:
Mel Karmazin gets his $530 million lifeline from John Malone at Liberty – but it’s expensive.
Sirius XM had to give Malone 40% of the company and agree to pay 15% interest on the senior secured notes due in December 2012. But it’s not a “change of control” and it keeps Charlie Ergen at EchoStar and Dish from dictating the future of America’s only licensed satellite radio operator. That’s what would be happening, if Sirius XM had missed yesterday’s debt payment on the $171.6 million note now held by Ergen. (Or else Karmazin would’ve alienated his creditors by declaring Chapter 11.) Now things go on pretty much as they were, with Sirius XM getting new working capital as it waits out the depression in auto sales. I told Bloomberg last week that Mel Karmazin’s been a little like Star Trek’s Captain Kirk – he somehow finds a way out of impossible situations. He did it again, but it was close.
It’s a two-phase rescue plan for Sirius XM (actually three phases).
Phase 1 – a very important check for $250 million now and a further $30 million later that gives John Malone’s Liberty group a senior secured note paying 15% interest. Phase 2 – an additional loan of $150 million to handle some debt of predecessor XM Satellite Radio. Also, Liberty agrees to purchase up to $100 million of XM’s existing debt. When all that’s done, Liberty gets 12.5 million shares of preferred stock that’s convertible into ownership of 40% of Sirius common stock. And two Liberty executives – probably John Malone and his president/CEO Greg Maffei – will take seats on the board of Sirius XM when phases 1 and 2 are done.
The EchoStar/Dish guy got his debt payment yesterday from Sirius XM, on time – and he probably made money on the short-term investment. Presumably he bought the paper worth over $170 million in face value at some kind of discount from the hedge fund that used to own it. So he gets his dough, even if he wasn’t able to bring Sirius XM into his orbit. (And we still don’t really know the motivations and goals of either Charlie Ergen at EchoStar/Dish or John Malone at Liberty/DirecTV). Meanwhile, Ergen maintains a relationship with Sirius XM on a different level – his Dish network uses some music channels from the satcaster as part of its menu of audio services. But maybe Liberty’s not safe yet. The Wall Street Journal suggests that Ergen could buy still more of the Sirius XM debt and then "refuse to extend the maturity. Liberty might then back out of the deal." Ergen’s offer was for more money – $700 million – but he would’ve taken 51% of the company and that would have triggered a DOJ review that would drag on for months.
